Brazil ended June 2026 with a positive balance of 145,161 formal positions, the result of 2,220,131 admissions and 2,074,970 dismissals. In the first half of the year, the accumulated balance reached 921,645 jobs, according to the Ministry of Labor and Employment.
The data indicates net expansion of CLT employment. But it doesn't alone answer the question that comes across a leader's desk: should the company open a vacancy now and will it find the right person in the market in which it operates?
To get close to this answer, it is necessary to abandon reading the national balance as if it were a hiring plan. The New Caged should function as an external signal, to be divided by sector, location, occupation, salary and volume of movements — and then compared with demand, budget, productivity, turnover and management capacity of the organization itself.
What the Novo Caged balance really measures
The balance is the difference between admissions and dismissals recorded in the period. In June, companies reported more than 4.29 million gross movements, but the net difference between inflows and outflows was 145,161 connections.
This distinction matters. Two regions can present the same balance, although one has few hires and few dismissals, while the other has a large circulation of workers. The first scenario may indicate stability; the second may be associated with expansion, seasonality, frequent replacements or other dynamics that the isolated balance does not identify.
The New Caged is an administrative statistics on formal employment composed of data from eSocial, the Caged system and the Web Employer. Its monitoring unit is the celetista link, not the entire population available to work nor the entire universe of formal, informal, autonomous and statutory occupations.
Therefore, the indicator does not measure directly:
- how many people with a specific skill are available;
- how much do they expect to receive;
- how long will it take to accept a proposal;
- if they remain at the company after admission;
- whether the new hire will increase productivity;
- if there is sufficient internal demand to justify the position.
Questions about unemployment, workforce and underutilization require other sources, such as IBGE's Continuous PNAD. Answers about the viability of the vacancy also depend on the organization's internal data.
The five cuts that bring Caged closer to the decision
1. Sector: discover where the movement is happening
The five major economic groups had a positive balance in June 2026. Services led, with 74,514 jobs, followed by Agriculture, with 22,898; Commerce, with 19,177; Industry, with 14,438; and Construction, with 14,136.
The first reading should, therefore, compare the company's sector with the rest of the market. But the large groups are still too broad to guide specific hiring. Within Services, for example, the MTE highlighted administrative activities and complementary services, responsible for 26,634 positions in the month.
Questions for leader:
- Which section, division or class of the CNAE best represents the operation?
- Is the movement concentrated in the specific segment or just in the large group?
- Has the increase been going on for several months or did it only appear in June?
- Is the behavior similar to the same period last year?
Hypothesis that the data allows us to raise: companies in the segment may be increasing their demand for formal work.
What it does not prove: that all companies in the sector are growing, that your organization needs to hire or that the professionals you are looking for will be available.
An educational technology company, for example, may statistically appear in an economic activity linked to services, but compete for software engineers with banks, retailers, consultancies and industries. The sector helps to understand business demand; does not replace the occupation cutout.
2. UF and local market: changing the national map for the real recruitment area
The balance was positive in 25 of the 27 units of the Federation. In absolute numbers, São Paulo created 34,981 jobs, Minas Gerais, 20,805, and Rio de Janeiro, 16,856. The largest relative variations were observed in Amapá, Acre and Mato Grosso.
The contrast between absolute balance and relative variation avoids two hasty conclusions. Larger states tend to present high absolute numbers because they have larger employment stocks. Smaller states can lead proportionally even by adding fewer posts.
The business decision must advance from the UF to the municipality and, when necessary, to a recruitment area that includes neighboring cities. In-person, hybrid and remote work also produce different talent markets.
Questions for leader:
- In which municipality or group of municipalities will the vacancy be contested?
- Does the role require physical presence?
- Does the company compete for professionals with other regions?
- Does the local balance arise from the sector relevant to the vacancy?
Hypothesis that the data allows us to raise: formal demand is growing in the selected region.
What it does not prove: that there is a sufficient supply of professionals, that they live close to the unit or that they will accept the proposed work model.
A strong state balance can coexist with a shortage of a certain profile in a specific city. It can also mean that multiple companies are hiring simultaneously, increasing competition for candidates rather than facilitating recruitment.
3. Occupation: separate the company's activity from the work that will be performed
Sector and occupation answer different questions. The CNAE classifies the economic activity of the establishment. The Brazilian Classification of Occupations, the CBO, organizes jobs or similar work situations according to the activities carried out and the skills mobilized.
This is the cut that brings the data closer to the real vacancy. A hospital network may look for data analysts; an industry can hire salespeople; a financial company may need information security professionals. Looking only at the employer's industry leaves out competitors vying for the same occupation.
The MTE Brazilian Occupations Guide provides information such as the number of registered workers, average salary, sociodemographic profile, geographic distribution and characteristics of the hiring companies. The panels use records from RAIS and Novo Caged.
Before the consultation, the company must identify the CBO code that most closely matches the actual activities of the vacancy. The title used internally may not match the classification name.
Questions for leader:
- Which CBO best represents the essential activities of the role?
- Are there two or more plausible occupations for the same internal title?
- Will the search be for an already established occupation or for a hybrid profile?
- Which sectors and regions compete for the same occupation?
Hypothesis that the data allows us to raise: there was an increase or reduction in formal movement in the researched occupation.
What it does not prove: that professionals have the tools, certifications, seniority or specific experiences required by the company.
CBO is a statistical classification. It does not automatically transform a broad occupational group into a recruitment-ready job description.
4. Admission salary: observe the entry price without treating it as an ideal proposal
The real average salary for admission in the country was R$ 2,404.34 in June. The average varied between the major sectors: R$2,631.65 in Construction, R$2,504.39 in Industry, R$2,472.33 in Services, R$2,222.31 in Agriculture and R$2,139.37 in Commerce.
These averages are aggregated references. They should not be transformed directly into a salary range for a vacancy. The appropriate value depends on occupation, seniority, location, working hours, contractual modality, collective agreement, benefits, scope and difficulty of recruitment.
The salary methodology published by the MTE also excludes amounts below 0.3 minimum wages, above 150 minimum wages and intermittent employment. Monthly data is subject to subsequent updates.
Questions for leader:
- What is the entry salary for the occupation in the relevant region?
- Is the average rising persistently?
- Is the approved range competitive in relation to the market and internal structure?
- Do benefits, bonuses and flexibility change the attractiveness of the proposal?
- Is there a risk of salary compression in relation to current professionals?
Hypothesis that the data allows us to raise: the input cost is increasing or decreasing in the consultation section.
What it does not prove: what remuneration will guarantee hiring, what is the total salary received by the professional or how much he will produce after being hired.
Use Caged salary as an external benchmark and compare it with internal equity, budget, additional salary surveys and actual results from the recruiting funnel.
5. Admissions and dismissals: see the flow hidden by the balance
In June, the balance of 145,161 jobs resulted from 2,220,131 admissions and 2,074,970 dismissals. Services, for example, recorded more than 1.05 million admissions and 983 thousand dismissals. Commerce had 507,660 entries and 488,483 exits.
Looking at both sides avoids confusing net growth with ease of hiring. A market with many admissions can also have many exits. The balance informs the final result, but does not explain the reasons for dismissals or the length of stay.
The link type adds another layer. Of the 145,161 net jobs in June, 112,253 were classified as typical and 32,908 as non-typical. The non-typical category used by the MTE includes apprentices, intermittent, temporary, CAEPF hired and contracts with a workload of up to 30 hours.
Questions for leader:
- Is the increase in admissions accompanied by more dismissals?
- Does the momentum persist over a 12-month series?
- Is the movement concentrated on typical, temporary or shorter-time jobs?
- Does the company face difficulty hiring or retaining?
- How many internal dismissals occurred before the new vacancy was proposed?
Hypothesis that the data allows us to raise: there is a greater circulation of bonds in the analyzed market.
What it does not prove: that circulation arises from expansion, substitution, unwanted turnover or voluntary decisions by workers.
To understand these causes, the company needs to cross Caged with length of stay, voluntary dismissals, exit interviews, absenteeism, productivity and quality of leadership.
An example of a conclusion that the data does not support
“Services created 74,514 vacancies in June, so it will be easy to hire an analyst for our company.”
The conclusion is not supported because it mixes different levels of analysis:
- the balance is national;
- Services bring together very diverse activities;
- the analyst's occupation was not selected;
- the local market was not consulted;
- the available salary was not compared;
- admissions and dismissals were not analyzed separately;
- no company information was considered.
A more responsible formulation would be:
“The Services balance suggests expansion of formal employment, but we need to check the occupation, region, entry salary and the flow of entries and exits before estimating the difficulty of recruitment.”
The first sentence sells certainty. The second transforms the indicator into a verifiable hypothesis.
Guideline for using the panel before opening a vacancy
1. Record the decision that needs to be made
Define whether the query will be used to approve a vacancy, adjust the salary, choose the recruitment region, change the work model or estimate the deadline for filling.
2. Set the competence and comparison period
Record June 2026 as the competency and July 29, 2026 as the disclosure date. Compare the month with May, with June of the previous year and with a series of at least 12 months.
New Caged incorporates declarations submitted after the deadline and can retrospectively update admissions and dismissals from previous competencies. Therefore, the access date and filters used must accompany any graph or diagnosis.
3. Apply the five filters
Use, in this order:
- economic activity;
- UF, municipality or recruitment area;
- occupation or occupational family;
- admission salary;
- admissions, dismissals and type of employment.
The official Novo Caged material brings together a summary, presentation, tables and interactive panel with geographic and activity filters. Occupational consultations can be complemented by the Brazilian Occupations Guide and microdata made available by the MTE.
4. Cross-reference the company's numbers
Before approval, gather:
- business reason for the vacancy;
- work volume and current capacity;
- total cost of hiring;
- productivity or expected delivery;
- team turnover;
- average time to fill similar positions;
- conversion rate between application, interview, proposal and admission;
- permanence after three, six and 12 months.
5. Rate the strength of the evidence
| Situation | Recommended interpretation |
|---|---|
| Favorable caged and proven internal need | External evidence reinforces a decision already supported by demand, budget and management capacity |
| Favorable caged, but misaligned salary or occupation | Review range, location, job scope or search strategy |
| Caged weak, but internal need critical | Plan longer recruitment, training, internal mobility or job redesign |
| Only positive national balance | Insufficient evidence to approve hiring |
Caged improves the question, it doesn't make the decision
June data shows that the Brazilian formal market continued to create links. They also reveal relevant differences between sectors, states, salaries and hiring modalities. But the managerial gain appears when the leader uses these differences to test a concrete hypothesis.
The national balance is a starting point. The decision begins when the company asks where, in what activity, for what occupation, for how much and with what dynamics of entry and exit it intends to hire.
Save this script, register the series and filters used and consult the official panel before opening a vacancy. A macroeconomic number can guide the investigation — but should not be sold as a complete HR diagnosis.
