Confiança entered the debate over 2027 before the 2026 season had even ended. The 1-0 defeat to Anápolis on August 22 confirmed relegation to Série D with one round to spare. Three days later, an interview with former vice president Gilson Júnior, known as Júnior da CAT, introduced a new figure into the discussion: the club could operate with something between R$ 12 million and R$ 14 million next year.
The range drew attention because it is high for a club that has just dropped to the fourth tier. But as of August 26, 2026, it does not appear in an official SAF budget, published financial statement or CBF document. It is a projection built from what would still be expected in capital contributions and from what the club could generate in its own revenue.
The safest answer, therefore, is straightforward: the R$ 12 million to R$ 14 million is not confirmed. There are documented figures that help build a scenario for 2027, but they need to be separated into investor commitments, money actually paid into the fund, investment made in the SAF, operating revenue and any cash that may remain from 2026.
The R$ 6 million figure comes from the SAF's original plan
When the proposal to transform Confiança's football operation into a SAF was presented at the end of 2025, the project referred to a R$ 51.2 million budget over three years. That total never meant R$ 51.2 million in new money deposited all at once. The disclosed composition combined R$ 24 million in direct investor contributions with the remainder coming from existing revenue and new revenue that the SAF expected to develop.
Under the allocation presented at the time, the R$ 24 million would be distributed in three stages: 40% in the first cycle, 35% in the second and 25% in the third. Applying that calculation, the portion associated with 2027 would be R$ 6 million.
This is the main starting point for the projection made by Júnior da CAT. If the R$ 6 million is effectively called and transferred to the SAF in 2027, roughly R$ 6 million to R$ 8 million in other revenue would need to be added to reach the total range of R$ 12 million to R$ 14 million.
The problem is that the original schedule has already stopped functioning as a simple accounting snapshot of execution. In April 2026, SAF CEO Diogo Lemos said the FIP would have to invest R$ 9.6 million throughout 2026 and said a first contribution of about R$ 5 million had already been received. The R$ 9.6 million figure does not correspond to the 35% in the initial schedule, which would equal R$ 8.4 million. This shows that the timetable presented in 2025 should not be read, by itself, as an up-to-date cash statement.
The FIP placed R$ 24.72 million in units, but placement is not a contribution to the SAF
An official document published by Oslo Capital helps explain why the figures can become confused. The prospectus of the AD Confiança Fundo de Investimento em Participações provided for an offering of up to R$ 30 million in fund units. The closing announcement, dated June 3, 2026, reported the placement of R$ 24.72 million in units with 16 investors.
This figure is important, but it does not mean that R$ 24.72 million was deposited into Confiança's account. The placement of units records the volume of the offering acquired by investors. The prospectus itself establishes a capital call mechanism, under which the payment of resources follows the fund's need to invest in the SAF.
There is another relevant distinction: the fund is a separate entity from the SAF. The money can be committed by unit holders, paid into the FIP and only then invested in the company. Treating those three stages as if they were the same thing produces a budget that is artificially larger than the cash actually available for football operations.
The prospectus also states that, after costs and the cash reserve, at least 90% of the fund's net assets must be invested in assets of the invested company. That reinforces the connection between the FIP and the SAF, but it does not automatically turn every unit placed into money already delivered to the club.
The CVM portfolio does not confirm R$ 18 million in the SAF
The latest public portfolio of AD Confiança FIP found in the CVM consultation, received on July 28, 2026, recorded net assets of R$ 6,149,857.30. In that snapshot, the stake in S.A.F. A. Desportiva Confiança appeared at a cost of R$ 5.4 million, equivalent to about 87.8% of the fund's assets. There was also approximately R$ 762.6 thousand in a fixed-income fund and about R$ 19.9 thousand in cash and cash equivalents, in addition to amounts payable.
This information is particularly relevant because, in the interview published on August 25, Júnior da CAT said he had been told that 75% of the planned contributions had already been made. If that percentage is applied to the project's R$ 24 million, the result is R$ 18 million.
The public documents reviewed do not confirm that R$ 18 million has already been effectively invested in the SAF. The portfolio submitted to the CVM shows a cost of R$ 5.4 million for the company asset, a figure much closer to the first contribution of around R$ 5 million reported by the CEO in April than to the R$ 18 million suggested by reading the 75% figure.
This does not make it possible to conclude that the former executive's statement is necessarily wrong. There may be a difference in dates, new events not yet reflected in the public portfolio found, or confusion between units placed, committed capital, called capital and a contribution effectively made to the SAF. But without an updated document that reconciles these figures, the R$ 18 million must continue to be treated as attributed information, not as a proven financial fact.
So is the R$ 6 million for 2027 guaranteed?
The original project associates 25% of the R$ 24 million in contributions with the third cycle, which corresponds to R$ 6 million. This is an important commitment for building the 2027 scenario, but it is not correct to call that amount cash available today.
To know how much can actually come in next year, it is necessary to know how much capital has already been called by the end of 2026, how much will still remain to be paid in, and what schedule will be decided by the fund and the SAF. The R$ 24.72 million offering shows that investors subscribed in sufficient volume to support the project, but it does not replace proof of capital calls and effective contributions.
It is also necessary to know how much money the SAF will carry from the end of 2026 into the following financial year. An annual budget does not necessarily start from zero. Remaining cash, receivables, obligations already contracted and expenses that carry over into the new year can increase or reduce the real capacity to invest in football.
Série D guarantees a calendar, not a R$ 12 million budget
Relegation guarantees Confiança a place in the 2027 Série D. The 2026 Série C regulations establish that the bottom two teams are relegated to the fourth tier, and the defeat to Anápolis made the drop mathematically irreversible.
Série D, however, does not currently provide a 2027 figure that can simply be added to the budget. In 2026, the CBF expanded the competition to 96 clubs and announced R$ 65.5 million in participation payments, with R$ 500 thousand for each club in the first phase and additional payments as teams advanced through the knockout rounds. Those figures belong to the 2026 edition.
As of the date of this analysis, the CBF had not yet published a specific financial framework for the 2027 Série D that would make it possible to state how much Confiança will receive. Using the R$ 500 thousand from 2026 as guaranteed revenue for the following year would anticipate a decision that can still change.
The same caution applies to sponsorships, the membership program, ticket sales, commercial rights and revenue linked to other competitions. In May 2026, for example, the City of Aracaju announced a R$ 200 thousand sponsorship for Confiança for that season. The payment proves 2026 revenue, not an automatic renewal in 2027.
The 2026 budget shows the gap between forecast and execution
In April, Diogo Lemos estimated revenue of about R$ 14 million for 2026. The executive linked the projection to sponsorships, brand appreciation, new partners and the club's progress in competitions such as the Copa do Brasil.
That figure helps explain why a similar range has appeared again for 2027, but the two financial years are not equivalent. Confiança in 2026 competed in Série C and had a long Copa do Brasil run. In 2027, it will enter Série D and will have a different structure of sporting revenue.
For that reason, repeating the same order of magnitude requires showing where the offset will come from. The contribution expected for the third cycle may be an important part, but sponsors, ticket sales, members, prize money and player transactions need to be budgeted with verifiable assumptions. Without that breakdown, the R$ 12 million to R$ 14 million range remains an estimate of capacity, not contracted revenue.
The total budget is not the payroll either
Even if Confiança confirms a budget of R$ 12 million, R$ 13 million or R$ 14 million, that does not mean all of that money can be used for the professional squad. The SAF has to fund player and coaching staff salaries, payroll charges, administrative employees, youth teams, travel, meals, facility maintenance, contracts, debts and investments.
This distinction is even more important after 2026. The first contribution reported by the CEO was used mainly to pay short-term financial debts, according to the explanation he gave in April. Money that comes in as new capital can strengthen the company without appearing directly in the quality of the team on the field.
To measure Confiança's sporting strength in 2027, therefore, the most useful figure will not be the gross budget alone. It will be necessary to know the professional football budget, the planned payroll, the cost of the other areas and how much of the contribution will be committed to liabilities or infrastructure.
What is still missing before any figure can be called confirmed
The discussion will only be resolved when there is an updated financial document that connects four points: the capital already paid in by FIP unit holders, the amount effectively invested in the SAF, the balance of contributions still planned for 2027 and the club's operating budget for the Série D season.
Today, these figures exist in different documents and at different moments. The FIP offering ended with R$ 24.72 million in units placed. The public portfolio received by the CVM on July 28 showed R$ 5.4 million as the cost of the stake in the SAF. The initial project reserved 25% of the R$ 24 million in contributions for the third cycle. And the R$ 12 million to R$ 14 million range emerged as an estimate from a former executive, not as an announcement from the current administration.
Reconciling these data points is precisely what prevents an isolated figure from being treated as the definitive answer.
How much could Confiança have in 2027, then?
As of August 26, 2026, there is not enough public evidence to state that Confiança will have R$ 12 million, R$ 14 million or any other fixed total in 2027. The published range is plausible as a mathematical scenario if part of the planned contribution remains for the next cycle and if the SAF manages to generate relevant operating revenue, but both conditions still need to be proven.
The figure directly associated with 2027 in the original plan is R$ 6 million, corresponding to the final 25% of the announced R$ 24 million in contributions. Even that amount should be described as a planned tranche, not as money already available. The FIP offering proves that R$ 24.72 million in units was placed with investors, but the latest public portfolio found shows only R$ 5.4 million recorded as the cost of the stake in the SAF.
The best reading today, therefore, is to separate three layers. There is a capitalization project that remains relevant. There is a budget estimate between R$ 12 million and R$ 14 million. And there is the cash effectively supported by public documents, which still does not make it possible to close the 2027 calculation.
After relegation, the question is no longer only how much was promised. The decisive point has become how much capital will still be called, how much of the operation will be able to pay for itself and how much will actually remain available to build a team capable of getting out of Série D.
